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Current and Past Projects
Research Group
Publications
Resler, L.M. and Kolivras, K.N. In press. A field-based technique for teaching habitat fragmentation and biogeographic edges. Journal of Geography. [Abstract]
Kolivras, K.N. and Scarpaci, J.L. 2009. Between Corporatism and Socialism: Navigating the Waters of International Education in the Dominican Republic and Cuba. Journal of Geography 108(3): 1-11.
*Lambert, R.C., Kolivras, K.N. , Resler, L.M., Brewster, C.C. and Paulson, S.L. 2008. The potential for emergence of Chagas disease in the United States.. Geospatial Health 2(2): in press. [Abstract]
Kolivras, K.N. and A.C. Comrie. 2007. Regionalization and variability of precipitation in Hawaii. Physical Geography 28(1): 76-96 . [Abstract]
*Knocke, E. and Kolivras, K.N. 2007. Flash flood awareness in southwest Virginia. Risk Analysis 27(1): 155-169. [Abstract]
Kolivras, K.N. 2006. Mosquito habitat and dengue risk potential in Hawaii: A conceptual framework and GIS application. The Professional Geographer 58, 139-154. [Abstract]
Kolivras, K.N. and A.C. Comrie. 2004: Climate and infectious disease in the southwestern United States. Progress in Physical Geography 28, 387-398. [Abstract]
Kolivras, K.N. and A.C. Comrie. 2003: Modeling valley fever (coccidioidomycosis) incidence based on climate conditions. International Journal of Biometeorology 47, 87-101. [Abstract]
Kolivras, K.N., Johnson, P.S., Comrie, A.C. and Yool, S.R. 2001. Environmental Variability and Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever). Aerobiologia 17, 31-42. [Abstract]
In review
Kolivras, K.N. and Scarpaci, J.L. In review. Health concerns and help-seeking behavior in a Dominican shantytown. Submitted to Southeastern Geographer . [Abstract]
In preparation
Kolivras, K.N. In preparation. The effect of climate variability and change on dengue risk in Hawaii. To be submitted to Climatic Change. Expected submission Fall 2008.
* Published with a student under my supervision
Resler, L.M. and Kolivras, K.N. In press. A field-based technique for teaching habitat fragmentation and biogeographic edges. Journal of Geography.
This paper presents a field technique that exposes students to the indirect effects of habitat fragmentation on plant and animal distributions through studying edge effects. This assignment, suited for upper-level students in a biogeography or resource geography class, increases students ’ knowledge of basic biogeographic concepts such as environmental gradients and disturbance in addition to formulating research questions and design. In this exercise, fieldwork can be implemented with simple tools that are easily obtainable and found in most physical geography labs. In our example, student response to the exercise was positive; they indicated that the exercise was a fun and interactive way to learn fundamental biogeographic concepts.[top]
Lambert, R.C., Kolivras, K.N. , Resler, L.M., Brewster, C.C. and Paulson, S.L. 2008. The potential for emergence of Chagas disease in the United States.. Geospatial Health 2(2): in press.
To determine the risk for Chagas disease in the United States, we considered both environmental and social factors; specifically, we defined characteristics of the triatomine that make it an effective vector, delineated areas most at risk for transmission and, within those areas, determined the status of Chagas disease awareness among physicians. A Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to analyze three triatomine species within the United States known to harbor T. cruzi and that exhibit qualities of domesticity. An analysis of the minimum temperature threshold for increased triatomine activity delineates the current population at increased risk, and by incorporating temperature predictions for 2030, we also delineated the population at risk under a future climate scenario. A vignette-based physician survey, based on the results of the GIS analysis, was used to gauge the level of awareness of Chagas disease within the delineated higher risk range.
The current area at increased risk for Chagas disease includes much of the southern United States, and the higher risk range is expected to expand into the central United States based upon the 1° C (1.8° F) increase in temperature predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by the year 2030. Survey results indicate a limited consideration of Chagas disease during differential diagnosis, illustrating that the low number of Chagas disease cases discovered in the United States may be attributable to a lack of disease awareness as opposed to a lack of disease threat. This study combines GIS and survey analyses to evaluate the role that temperature variability and disease awareness among physicians play in the potential emergence of Chagas disease (American trypanosomiasis) in the United States. This approach indicates that there is a potential for Chagas disease to emerge in the United States. [top]
Kolivras, K.N. and A.C. Comrie. 2007. Regionalization and variability of precipitation in Hawaii. Physical Geography 28(1): 76-96.
Regions based on seasonal precipitation variability for Hawaii are determined using a principal components analysis applied to 124 stations for the period 1971-2000. Nine final regions are delineated and are consistent with known precipitation patterns; leeward and windward stations are in separate regions on all islands. Within each region, the relationship between precipitation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined at different seasonal lags using a correlation analysis with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Niño 3.4 and Niño 1+2 indices. Precipitation is most frequently correlated with ENSO under concurrent conditions and a one-season lag using SOI and Niño 3.4. Using several non-parametric statistical tests, it is determined that while precipitation received in Hawaii during El Niño events is significantly different from average precipitation and precipitation received during La Niña events, the relationship between precipitation and individual ENSO events within regions is rarely significant. Finally, during El Niño or La Niña, average precipitation receipt across the regions co-varies during winter and summer under concurrent conditions and a one-season lag. Synoptic patterns are examined and indicate a deviation from average conditions during ENSO events. [top]
Knocke, E. and Kolivras, K.N. 2007. Flash flood awareness in southwest Virginia. Risk Analysis 27(1): 155-169.
Flash floods are one of the most dangerous weather-related natural disasters in the world. These events develop less than six hours after a rainfall event and create hazardous situations for people and extensive damage to property. It is critical for flash flood conditions to be warned in a timely manner to minimize impacts. There is currently a knowledge gap between flood experts and the general public about the level of perceived risk that the other has toward the powerful flood waters and how events should be warned, which affects the communication capabilities and efficiency of the warning process. Prior research has addressed risk perception of natural disasters, but there is little emphasis on flash floods within flood-prone regions of the United States . This research utilizes an online survey of 300 respondents to determine the current state of flash flood awareness and preparation in southwest Virginia . Analysis of trends involved the use of chi-squared tests and simple frequency and percentage calculations. Results reveal that a knowledge base of flash floods does exist, but is not advanced enough for proper awareness. Young adults have a lower understanding and are not as concerned about flood impacts. Increased exposure and perceived risk play a key role in shaping the way a person approaches flash floods. People do monitor flood events, but they are unaware of essential guidance and communication mechanisms. Finally, results suggest that the current method of warning flash floods is not provided at an appropriate level of detail for effective communication. [top]
Kolivras, K.N. 2006. Mosquito habitat and dengue risk potential in Hawaii: A conceptual framework and GIS application. The Professional Geographer 58, 139-154.
Dengue, spread by several Aedes mosquito species, is considered to be a re-emerging disease and the distribution of the vector is partially mediated by environmental conditions. In this paper, a new conceptual model is suggested that emphasizes the importance of including climatic and environmental variability in mosquito modeling studies. In an applied sense, mosquito habitat maps are developed for the Aedes albopictus mosquito in Hawaii using an overly analysis of survival thresholds of environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, and perennial stream/wetland location) in a geographic information system. Low and middle elevation windward locations typically serve as mosquito habitat, while leeward and high elevation areas are too dry or too cold, respectively, for mosquito survival. Perennial streams and wetlands may serve as potential mosquito breeding grounds in areas that receive low precipitation. Populated areas are added to the habitat maps to represent locations with the potential for a dengue outbreak. The maps are designed to be adjustable based on expert local knowledge and user input. Mosquito control efforts used to prevent or control dengue outbreaks can be concentrated in those zones delineated by the modeling efforts of this study. [top]
Kolivras, K.N. and A.C. Comrie. 2004: Climate and infectious disease in the southwestern United States. Progress in Physical Geography 28, 387-398.
As in many parts of the world, climate variability has a strong impact on infectious diseases within the southwestern USA. Moisture and temperature conditions can either indirectly impact disease by providing an environment conducive to the growth of an animal host or reservoir, or directly through the survival and dispersal of an infectious agent. It is also expected that climate change will affect the number of cases and/or the spatial distribution of infectious diseases. Before the effects of climate change on diseases can be determined, an understanding of the basic relationship between incidence and climate variability should be established. A review of cliamte impacts on four infectious diseases (hantavirus, plague, dengue and coccidioidomycosis) currently found in the southwestern USA (or potentially found in the southwest in the case of dengue) is followed by suggested future research to further understand the relationship between climate variability/change and disease. [top]
Kolivras, K.N. and A.C. Comrie. 2003: Modeling valley fever (coccidioidomycosis) incidence based on climate conditions. International Journal of Biometeorology 47, 87-101.
Valley fever (coccidioidomycosis) is a disease endemic to arid regions within the western hemisphere, and is caused by a soil-dwelling fungus, Coccidioides immitis. Incidence data for Pima County reported to the Arizona Department of Health Services as new cases of valley fever was used to conduct exploratory analyses and develop monthly multivariate models of relationships between valley fever incidence and climate conditions and variability in Pima County, Arizona, U.S.A. Bivariate and compositing analyses conducted during the exploratory portion of the study revealed that antecedent temperature and precipitation in different seasons are important predictors of incidence. These results were used in the selection of candidate variables for multivariate predictive modeling, which was designed to predict deviation from mean incidence based on past, current, and forecast climate conditions. The models were specified using a backward stepwise procedure, and were most sensitive to key predictor variables in the winter season and variables that were time-lagged one year or more prior to the month being predicted. Model accuracy was generally moderate (R2 values for the monthly models tested on independent data ranged from 0.15 to 0.50), and months with high incidence can be predicted more accurately than months with low incidence. [top]
Kolivras, K.N., Johnson, P.S., Comrie, A.C. and Yool, S.R. 2001. Environmental Variability and Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever). Aerobiologia 17, 31-42.
Coccidioidomycosis (valley fever) is a disease endemic to arid regions in the western hemisphere, and is caused by the soil-dwelling fungus Coccidioides immitis (C. immitis). In this paper, we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge regarding valley fever and C. immitis as related to climatic conditions and habitat requirements. Previous research shows there is a relationship between temperature and precipitation, and outbreaks of coccidioidomycosis. Incidence of the disease varies seasonally as well as annually due to changing climatic conditions. However, the specific environmental conditions that may produce an outbreak of coccidioidomycosis are not well understood in space and time. Previous studies have attempted to characterize C. immitis’ habitat. Temperature, moisture, salinity, and pH of the soil have all been considered separately in the geographic distribution of the fungus. Medical and proactive intervention are served best, however, by an integrative strategy that folds climate and surface variables into spatially-explicit models. We conclude with recommendations for future research directions. [top]
Kolivras, K.N. and Scarpaci, J.L. In preparation. Health concerns and help-seeking behavior in a Dominican shantytown.
The eastern Dominican Republic is home to over twenty high-end tourist resorts, which provide job opportunities in the construction and service industries and attract migrants from across the country as well as Haiti. This paper examines help-seeking behaviors of the migrants and their families who reside in Verón, a shantytown near the resorts. After providing an overview of the community in the broader contexts of migration and Latin American geographies, we present the results of an in-depth health survey of 108 household heads in Verón. Water and sanitation are major concerns in the community and directly relate to the health of residents. We then discuss the common ailments and the common sources of health-related advice and treatment options. Curative services for the community are expensive and entail time-consuming visits to a hospital in the provincial capital or visits to the local public health clinic. Residents find clinics to be dirty and open too few hours. We situate these help-seeking findings into a broader discussion of shantytown health-care in Latin America and existing incremental policy frameworks: availability of care, technocratic health policy, and cost recovery. Lastly, we make recommendations about the sanitation, educational, and curative needs for the community in order to improve health and health care in Verón. [top]
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